Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: NROU (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU)), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)." The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the high value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the high value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the midpoint of the range forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the low value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims data are based on the week of unemployment, not the week when the initial claim was filed.

Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims data are based on the week of unemployment, not the week when the initial claim was filed.

Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims data are based on the week of unemployment, not the week when the initial claim was filed.

The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims data are based on the week of unemployment, not the week when the initial claim was filed.

The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment. Continued claims data are based on the week of unemployment, not the week when the initial claim was filed.

The insured unemployment rate (% of covered employment) is Continued Claims (also called insured unemployment) divided by Covered Employment.

This series is from the Current Population Survey (Household Survey) conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force flows show the movements that underlie the net over-the-month changes in employment, unemployment, or not in the labor force.

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04076940

To obtain estimates of women worker employment, the ratio of weighted women employees to the weighted all employees in the sample is assumed to equal the same ratio in the universe. The current month's women worker ratio, thus, is estimated and then multiplied by the all-employee estimate. The weighted-difference-link-and-taper formula (described in the source) is used to estimate the current month's women worker ratio. This formula adds the change in the matched sample's women worker ratio (the weighted-difference link) to the prior month's estimate, which has been slightly modified to reflect changes in the sample composition (the taper). The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04027688

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04024936

To obtain estimates of women worker employment, the ratio of weighted women employees to the weighted all employees in the sample is assumed to equal the same ratio in the universe. The current month's women worker ratio, thus, is estimated and then multiplied by the all-employee estimate. The weighted-difference-link-and-taper formula (described in the source) is used to estimate the current month's women worker ratio. This formula adds the change in the matched sample's women worker ratio (the weighted-difference link) to the prior month's estimate, which has been slightly modified to reflect changes in the sample composition (the taper). The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04000359

To obtain estimates of women worker employment, the ratio of weighted women employees to the weighted all employees in the sample is assumed to equal the same ratio in the universe. The current month's women worker ratio, thus, is estimated and then multiplied by the all-employee estimate. The weighted-difference-link-and-taper formula (described in the source) is used to estimate the current month's women worker ratio. This formula adds the change in the matched sample's women worker ratio (the weighted-difference link) to the prior month's estimate, which has been slightly modified to reflect changes in the sample composition (the taper). The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04000346

To obtain estimates of women worker employment, the ratio of weighted women employees to the weighted all employees in the sample is assumed to equal the same ratio in the universe. The current month's women worker ratio, thus, is estimated and then multiplied by the all-employee estimate. The weighted-difference-link-and-taper formula (described in the source) is used to estimate the current month's women worker ratio. This formula adds the change in the matched sample's women worker ratio (the weighted-difference link) to the prior month's estimate, which has been slightly modified to reflect changes in the sample composition (the taper). The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04000317

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04000171

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU03032219

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU03000031

To obtain estimates of women worker employment, the ratio of weighted women employees to the weighted all employees in the sample is assumed to equal the same ratio in the universe. The current month's women worker ratio, thus, is estimated and then multiplied by the all-employee estimate. The weighted-difference-link-and-taper formula (described in the source) is used to estimate the current month's women worker ratio. This formula adds the change in the matched sample's women worker ratio (the weighted-difference link) to the prior month's estimate, which has been slightly modified to reflect changes in the sample composition (the taper). The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS13000029

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS13000086

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS13000173

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU03000015

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04024937

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS13008396

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04073413

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS14032183

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS14000018

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS13008516

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS14000028

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04049526

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04032235

To obtain estimates of women worker employment, the ratio of weighted women employees to the weighted all employees in the sample is assumed to equal the same ratio in the universe. The current month's women worker ratio, thus, is estimated and then multiplied by the all-employee estimate. The weighted-difference-link-and-taper formula (described in the source) is used to estimate the current month's women worker ratio. This formula adds the change in the matched sample's women worker ratio (the weighted-difference link) to the prior month's estimate, which has been slightly modified to reflect changes in the sample composition (the taper). The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS14000032

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS13023622

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU03327709

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04032223

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04000003

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS14100000

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04000060

This series is from the Current Population Survey (Household Survey) conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor force flows show the movements that underlie the net over-the-month changes in employment, unemployment, or not in the labor force.

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS13023558

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04032239

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04032236

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU03008275

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS14000150

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04032240

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS14027689

To obtain estimates of women worker employment, the ratio of weighted women employees to the weighted all employees in the sample is assumed to equal the same ratio in the universe. The current month's women worker ratio, thus, is estimated and then multiplied by the all-employee estimate. The weighted-difference-link-and-taper formula (described in the source) is used to estimate the current month's women worker ratio. This formula adds the change in the matched sample's women worker ratio (the weighted-difference link) to the prior month's estimate, which has been slightly modified to reflect changes in the sample composition (the taper). The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNS14000026

To obtain estimates of women worker employment, the ratio of weighted women employees to the weighted all employees in the sample is assumed to equal the same ratio in the universe. The current month's women worker ratio, thus, is estimated and then multiplied by the all-employee estimate. The weighted-difference-link-and-taper formula (described in the source) is used to estimate the current month's women worker ratio. This formula adds the change in the matched sample's women worker ratio (the weighted-difference link) to the prior month's estimate, which has been slightly modified to reflect changes in the sample composition (the taper). The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04000032

The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU04000001

Construction employees in the construction sector include: Working supervisors, qualified craft workers, mechanics, apprentices, helpers, laborers, and so forth, engaged in new work, alterations, demolition, repair, maintenance, and the like, whether working at the site of construction or in shops or yards at jobs (such as precutting and preassembling) ordinarily performed by members of the construction trades. The series comes from the 'Current Population Survey (Household Survey)' The source code is: LNU03032231